A new paper published in Nature Communications by the Harvard-China Project on Energy, Economy and Environment, a U.S.-China collaborative research program based at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS), and collaborators at Huazhong University of Science and Technology (HUST) in China, suggests that offshore wind power may hold the key to decarbonizing China’s coastal provinces. China’s coastal provinces, which account for 76% of the population, 72% of total national power consumption, and 70% of total CO2 emissions, need to transition away from fossil fuels to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Offshore wind power offers a promising solution to this challenge.
The Benefits of Offshore Wind Power
China’s onshore wind investment, which accounts for over 80% of national and 30% of global wind commitments, has limited grid flexibility and significantly less output in winter. Other zero-carbon energy sources like solar and nuclear power also have financial, geographic, and safety constraints. Offshore wind power, on the other hand, provides a more optimal renewable energy resource.
According to the research, at least 1,000 GW of offshore wind capacity could already be available at a levelized cost below that for nuclear units in China. Offshore wind investment levels could be more than double the current government target. Offshore wind farms in China could not only provide the largest market for the global wind industry in the upcoming decade but could also offer an important building block for China to transition away from fossil fuel-based energy systems.
The Optimal Deployment Plan for Offshore Wind
To create the optimal deployment plan for offshore wind power, the researchers designed a high-resolution assessment model of China’s provinces. The model combines a refined analysis of offshore wind resources and economics, considers the micro-siting of wind farms with optimization of the delivery system, and simulates hourly power system demands, identifying optimal plans for provincial investments in offshore installations, transmissions, and storage.
The modeled system doubles current offshore wind investment by 2030 and improves current provincial deployment plans for offshore wind, shifting part of the investment from Guangdong to provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang. As a result, the plan could boost national renewable penetration from 31.5% to 40% at a cost lower than that anticipated in the current plan. By 2050, offshore wind capacity in China could reach as high as 1500 GW.
The research concludes that offshore wind power may hold the key to decarbonizing China’s coastal provinces. It offers a more optimal renewable energy resource than other zero-carbon energy sources like solar and nuclear power. The researchers’ high-resolution assessment model of China’s provinces identifies optimal plans for provincial investments in offshore installations, transmissions, and storage, doubling current offshore wind investment by 2030 and improving current provincial deployment plans for offshore wind. By 2050, offshore wind capacity in China could reach as high as 1500 GW.
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