The world of artificial intelligence (AI) is characterized by a mix of excitement and fear. On one hand, companies and investors are investing billions into AI technology, with interest skyrocketing since the release of the conversational chatbot ChatGPT by Microsoft-backed OpenAI. Many experts are hailing this as a tipping point for AI and predicting that generative AI will revolutionize industries and business models. However, on the other hand, there is a growing sense of controversy surrounding AI. AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton has warned that AI could pose a more urgent threat than climate change, and billionaire Elon Musk and others have called for a pause on advanced AI work due to the profound risks it may pose to society. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman even suggested the creation of a government licensing body for large-scale AI models. Amidst all the excitement and controversy, it is important to take a step back and examine the trajectory of AI and its potential impact.
Understanding the Impact of Generative AI
One area of concern surrounding AI is the fear that generative AI, which can produce complex content like text, imagery, and audio, is replacing human creativity. However, there is another perspective to consider. Bill Gates described generative AI as a white-collar worker that can assist with various tasks as computing power becomes more affordable. In other words, AI has the potential to make all the world’s knowledge easily accessible to everyone. For example, an attorney would no longer need a team of co-lawyers and paralegals to conduct extensive research before a big case if they can access all the necessary information through an AI assistant. This collapse of the knowledge gap could lead to an “intuition economy” where human creativity becomes even more valuable. Success for knowledge workers will no longer solely depend on accumulating and expressing knowledge, as AI will increasingly take over that role. Instead, leveraging widely available knowledge for new insights, innovations, and discoveries will be the key to success.
The Future of Innovation and Productivity with AI
Goldman Sachs predicts that generative AI could automate the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs worldwide. However, history has shown that worker displacement from automation is often offset by the creation of new jobs. The emergence of new occupations following technological innovations is the primary driver of long-term employment growth. Similarly, in the AI era, success will depend on the ability to connect the dots among different information streams. Significant innovations will occur in the “unknown world,” where AI streamlines knowledge accumulation, and humans focus on unlocking previously indecipherable mysteries. This transformation is akin to the software industry’s shift to an open-source model, where the underlying code is freely available, and companies compete based on the value they build on top of it. In the AI world, the proprietary value developed on top of commoditized knowledge will be the key to success. Therefore, AI is expected to drive greater innovation and productivity in business and society as a whole.
We are living in an age of acceleration, where technology is advancing rapidly. The agrarian economy lasted for thousands of years, the industrial economy for a couple of hundred years, and the knowledge economy for around 50 years. The pace of change is increasing exponentially, with Microsoft taking 25 years to become a household name, Google achieving the same feat in less than half that time, and ChatGPT gaining popularity within just a few months. It is evident that technology only moves forward, and AI is no exception. While it is essential to evaluate the impact of AI and consider necessary precautions, it is impossible to stop or even significantly slow down its development. The best approach is to ask the right questions about AI without panic and prepare ourselves for the inevitable AI-driven future.
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